In fact, observers were quite critical of some aspects of the economy in general though still assessing the condition of the national economy will improve and stable, particularly regarding macroeconomic aspects.
In the past month, some economic indicators forecast has been revised to 2013 is not as good as that expressed in previous months. Revision important of which is in the form of correction forecasts economic growth.
However, the correction is small so feel optimistic that survive. Macroeconomic indicators and their analysis tools available is sufficient to support the forecasts Indonesia's economy in 2013 will still be performing well and optimistic attitude invites economic and monetary authorities.
Indicators mentioned, among others economic growth, inflation, balance of international payments, and unemployment, including many details or derivatives indicators. Only, there are aspects that several indicators and dynamics tend to interpret ambiguous. In fact, the effect is very large.
It is a global economic conditions, particularly in relation to the European financial crisis and the U.S. economic recovery issues.
Three to six months ago, the global economic recovery is believed to be running smoothly. Positive impact on Indonesia is considered quite significant so optimistic forecasts have additional premise.
This month there are corrections and additions to the risk weight on the European crisis. United States assessed the economic recovery takes a little longer.
The impact of global crisis
Even if Europe can not get out of the crisis and the U.S. economic recovery is still running slow, the economic authorities still believe Indonesia will be safe from the potentially devastating effects, especially because of the strong economy (market) domestic and closer ties to Asian countries.
However, the argument to be a little less optimistic, especially in terms of economic growth which is considered equivalent will only increase in 2012. Indonesia 2013 economic forecast released by BRIGHT Indonesia Institute in Jakarta, Monday (26/11/2012), tried to broaden perspectives and extend the time horizon of the analysis.
According to Lukman Hakim, Managing Director BRIGHT Indonesia Institute, the usual point of view expressed by the economic authorities will still be used, but things between the lines of the indicator will also be considered. The major additions in perspective is related to the socio-political dynamics in the country.
Extended time horizon to pull back a few years and try to make the dynamics following years after 2013.
BRIGHT explained forecasts with shades that are not too optimistic, but also do not mean to endorse a pessimistic attitude, but more realistic.
Some analysis of the charged assessment "not good" is intended for early warning and recommendation to be anticipated with appropriate policies and fast.
If it must be stated in a few sentences, Indonesia's Economic Outlook 2013 will read as follows: "Indonesia's economy in 2013 will still show very good macroeconomic performance. Fact, among the country's highest economic growth. However, worsening symptoms will start soon seen that if the unanticipated opportunity to slow down or even stop the trend of improvement over the last few years.
Vulnerability of the global economy would be a serious nuisance and eventually dragged into the vortex of the crisis of the national economy in 2014. The possibility of it being more open because of the legislative and presidential elections in 2014 were a bit much social and political conditions that impact on the dynamics of the economy. "
Awalil Rizky, senior researcher Indonesia BRIGHT Institute, said Indonesia's economic growth in 2013 is expected to sit at the level of 5.9 percent, inflation in the range of 5 percent. International balance of payments deficit will be approximately U.S. $ 3 billion to 5 billion U.S. dollars, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar on average Rp 9,800, unemployment rate will only slightly decrease in the rate of 6 percent.
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