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BADAN EKSEKUTIF MAHASISWA (BEM) SEKOLAH TINGGI ILMU EKONOMI INDONESIA MALANG

BADAN EKSEKUTIF MAHASISWA

SEKOLAH TINGGI ILMU EKONOMI INDONESIA MALANG

Economic prospects for 2013 and 2014

Economic prospects for 2013 and 2014
In the event Overview Prospects for Economic and National Development, Program Leader Staff College BI batch-30, Monday (03/9), the Minister of Planning / Head of Bappenas, Prof. Dr. Armida S. Alisjahbana, said that Indonesia's economic prospects for the year 2013-2014 will be better than in 2012. In the macroeconomic framework RPJMN 2010-2014, pursued economic growth in 2014 could grow to 7 percent. While up to the second quarter of 2012, Indonesia's economic growth of about 6 percent. Meanwhile, the GDP per capita in 2013 is expected to reach USD 3445 and in 2014 is targeted to be increased again to $ 3811.Target increase in GDP is expected to be achieved by targeting a reduction in the unemployment rate to 5-6 percent and the poverty rate to be at least 8-10 percent in 2014. Until the second quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate from 6.7 to 7.0 percent and the poverty rate in the range of 10.5 to 11.5 percent. National poverty rate is expected to be lowered again in the range of 9.5 to 10.5 percent in 2013.Economic growth, according to Minister of Planning / Head of Bappenas, driven by private consumption is a major component of domestic demand and investment as well as exports of goods and services. The increase in consumption will occur when the purchasing power of the people, therefore should be pursued controlling inflation and ensuring the availability of basic commodities. RPJMN In 2010-2014, the average consumption of 5.3 to 5.4 percent it is clear Mrs. Armida. As described earlier, the economic growth was also driven by the growth rate of exports. Some factors that can support the growth of exports, among other things, a need to increase access to international markets, especially non-traditional markets, improving the quality and diversification of export products and increase export facilities, explained Mrs. Armida.
Associated with decreased levels of unemployment and poverty levels, improved labor quality. It is seen from the structure of formal employment means increased during the period 2010-2012. In 2012, the structure of formal workers rose to 37.2 percent. This number is up significantly compared to 2011 by 34.2 percent and in 2009 by 30.5 percent. An increasing number of formal workers was accompanied by an increase in non-farm labor structure which in 2011 reached 62 percent, but in 2012 it rose to 63.5 percent. At the same time, Mrs. Armida also touched on the role of schemes Master Plan for Acceleration and Expansion of Indonesia's Economic Development (MP3EI) in the Indonesian economy. It is said that MP3EI will encourage increased investment in Indonesia. Indication of the value of the investment by the greatest investor is coming from the private sector by 49 percent, while 12 percent of the government.Furthermore, he said the slowdown in the world economy and the increasingly serious world economic recovery is not as strong as in 2010 and 2011, Indonesia's economic growth target may need to be adjusted, especially on the export side, which in the year 2012 level of 1.8 percent of Indonesia's exports. Expected in 2013 and then increased to 8.5 percent in 2014 to 12 per cent target. With this adjustment, the base of Indonesia's economic growth in 2012 to 6.3 percent in 2013 to 6.6 percent and to 6.9 percent in 2014.

Economy Indonesia

Finance Minister: Economy Indonesia So Number Two Worlds
Author: Educate Purwanto | Friday, January 4, 2013 | 16:42 pm
 
JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Finance Minister Agus Martowardojo admits she still optimistic Indonesia is still able to achieve the economic growth during the 2012 level of 6.3 percent. If that happens, the Indonesian economy to be second highest in the world.

"We are optimistic that Indonesia's economy in 2012 could reach 6.3 percent. Given that, maybe Indonesia is the country with the best economic growth in the number two in the world," Agus said when met at the Ministry of Finance Jakarta, Friday (04/01/2013) .

According to Agus, China still leads the possible attainment of economic growth in the world. Then followed by Indonesia and then India and Brazil below. In order to achieve these targets, the government is also optimistic economic upliftment Indonesia during the fourth quarter of 2012 is expected to rise 6.1 to 6.4 percent.

"So the national economy remains 6.3 percent on an annual basis. Was that made us optimistic," he added.

Agus also said that in order to achieve economic growth, the government should also realize substantial budget in late 2012. So that it will take sustain domestic economic growth.

As for the absorption of the government budget, Agus considers still below the target or only 4.4 percent below budget targets. So that it expects government spending was really on target and could provide added value.
 
editor: A. Wisnubrata

Indonesia economy in 2013 is believed Very Good

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Indonesia's economy in 2013 is believed to be performing very well by many people, especially the economic and monetary authorities. Optimistic attitude shown by almost all those who publish scientific and academic forecasts.
In fact, observers were quite critical of some aspects of the economy in general though still assessing the condition of the national economy will improve and stable, particularly regarding macroeconomic aspects.
In the past month, some economic indicators forecast has been revised to 2013 is not as good as that expressed in previous months. Revision important of which is in the form of correction forecasts economic growth.
However, the correction is small so feel optimistic that survive. Macroeconomic indicators and their analysis tools available is sufficient to support the forecasts Indonesia's economy in 2013 will still be performing well and optimistic attitude invites economic and monetary authorities.
Indicators mentioned, among others economic growth, inflation, balance of international payments, and unemployment, including many details or derivatives indicators. Only, there are aspects that several indicators and dynamics tend to interpret ambiguous. In fact, the effect is very large.
It is a global economic conditions, particularly in relation to the European financial crisis and the U.S. economic recovery issues.
Three to six months ago, the global economic recovery is believed to be running smoothly. Positive impact on Indonesia is considered quite significant so optimistic forecasts have additional premise.
This month there are corrections and additions to the risk weight on the European crisis. United States assessed the economic recovery takes a little longer.
The impact of global crisis
Even if Europe can not get out of the crisis and the U.S. economic recovery is still running slow, the economic authorities still believe Indonesia will be safe from the potentially devastating effects, especially because of the strong economy (market) domestic and closer ties to Asian countries.
However, the argument to be a little less optimistic, especially in terms of economic growth which is considered equivalent will only increase in 2012. Indonesia 2013 economic forecast released by BRIGHT Indonesia Institute in Jakarta, Monday (26/11/2012), tried to broaden perspectives and extend the time horizon of the analysis.
According to Lukman Hakim, Managing Director BRIGHT Indonesia Institute, the usual point of view expressed by the economic authorities will still be used, but things between the lines of the indicator will also be considered. The major additions in perspective is related to the socio-political dynamics in the country.
Extended time horizon to pull back a few years and try to make the dynamics  following years after 2013.
BRIGHT explained forecasts with shades that are not too optimistic, but also do not mean to endorse a pessimistic attitude, but more realistic.
Some analysis of the charged assessment "not good" is intended for early warning and recommendation to be anticipated with appropriate policies and fast.
If it must be stated in a few sentences, Indonesia's Economic Outlook 2013 will read as follows: "Indonesia's economy in 2013 will still show very good macroeconomic performance. Fact, among the country's highest economic growth. However, worsening symptoms will start soon seen that if the unanticipated opportunity to slow down or even stop the trend of improvement over the last few years.
Vulnerability of the global economy would be a serious nuisance and eventually dragged into the vortex of the crisis of the national economy in 2014. The possibility of it being more open because of the legislative and presidential elections in 2014 were a bit much  social and political conditions that impact on the dynamics of the economy. "
Awalil Rizky, senior researcher Indonesia BRIGHT Institute, said Indonesia's economic growth in 2013 is expected to sit at the level of 5.9 percent, inflation in the range of 5 percent. International balance of payments deficit will be approximately U.S. $ 3 billion to 5 billion U.S. dollars, the exchange rate of the rupiah against the U.S. dollar on average Rp 9,800, unemployment rate will only slightly decrease in the rate of 6 percent.

Kambuna Field Economic Life Ends Early 2013

LONDON (Indonesia Today) - Serica Energy Plc said partners in the Glagah Kambuna Technical Assistance Contract (TAC) offshore in North Sumatra to end its economic life in early 2013.

"The Kambuna field has commenced its natural decline and production rates are falling in line with reservoir pressure depletion. The partnership is reviewing areas where cost cutting can prolong the economic life of the field but, under current projections, the field is expected to reach the end of its economic life in early 2013," Serica said yesterday.
"During this final phase, the timing of field handover to Pertamina and hence the remaining volume of reserves to be produced, are dependent both upon commercial considerations and termination arrangements," Serica continued.
During the third quarter the field produced at an average rate of 14.3 mmscfd (Q3 2011: 36.4 mmscfd) with approximately 836 bpd of condensate (Q3 2011: 2,342 bpd).
Average prices realised during the quarter for gas and condensate sales respectively were US$6.56 per mcf (Q3 2011: US$6.1 per mcf) and US$108.1 per barrel (Q3 2011: US$116.9 per barrel). The highest price achieved during 2012 is US$130 per barrel, achieved in March. (Indonesia Today)

Forecasting BUDGET

Forecasting BUDGET

He is the budget that contains estimates of the activities the company's activities in a certain time to come, and contains estimates of the state or the financial position of the company at the time to come.

Budget grouped into two, namely:

     Operating Budget
     financial Budget


OPERATING BUDGET

The activities of the company during this period includes two sectors:
1. Sector Income (Revenues)

     Sub-sector Income Home
     Sub-sector Income Not Home

2. Sector Costs (Expenses)

     Main sub-sector charges, including costs of plant, administrative costs, costs of sales.
     Sub-sector Cost Not Home.


FINANCIAL BUDGET

Planning about the company's financial position at a certain time in the future, while intended to state the financial position of the company are Assets, Debt and Equity firms at a time.

PHASE-PHASE PREPARATION OPERATING BUDGET

     The first alternative, the amount of sales is determined by the amount of production.
     Alternative Second, the amount of production it is determined by the amount of the sale.


PHASE-STAGE DEVELOPMENT FINANCIAL BUDGET

If the company will prepare the Financial Budget, should pay attention to and consider the purse or Operating Operating Budget must be drafted earlier than the Financial Budget.

economic Guilde

About Guilde
Besides manor-manor also contained residual Roman cities and small towns all require a market channel to serve them and is a very different social units with the manor in which the laws and customs applicable to them. While there are cities that are protected by the manor, town residents can gradually free themselves from having to abide by the rules landlords. Unlike the laws that apply to the manor, in the cities of developing laws governing trading activities. Finally, in the city itself there are industrial centers of the Middle Ages. Manor greatest person can not meet all their needs let alone to expand. When required Services or goods produced as glass must be purchased from artisan glass, stone must be purchased from a digger stone, iron must be purchased from clever iron makers and others. Charcoal and all these things can be found in the cities at that time and artisans are usually unionized worker. This guild called Guilde and workers organizations is derived from the Roman era. Guilde is a medieval entity. Person can not afford not to be attempted if Guilde members. So Guilde an exclusive guild. The dominant figure in this Guilde is a leader Guilde or independent mill owners.

 Guilde the cities of medieval artifacts wide range of time, just as Guilde makers and artisans knit gloves, hat makers and writers, each with a production tool, a way of life and its own rules, but when living in a very different Guilde life occurred in the manor. Guilde is a forerunner of modern life in the face with the medieval yaqng not short ..

Originally Guilde more than just an agency to regulate the production, partly regulations governing wages, working conditions and standardization of production, but besides that they also regulate the behavior of its members. Besides looking , Guilde also served to protect the way of life to be able to provide an appropriate income to Guilde leaders and workers, but also prevents them from being a great businessman and a monopoly. Guilde structured in such a way as to avoid any competition between its members. Competition is prohibited, the profits to be determined. Billboards are prohibited even better technical progress of the other members is considered a violation. Traders not allowed to persuade buyers to come into the store or should not call someone who is dealing with members of other Guilde, also not justified to make clothing in different ways from his colleagues. How to make clothing and clothing produced standards that need to be checked by other members, if there is a violation, then he can be fined very heavily.

From the description above we get an idea of ​​the economic development of the medieval feudal era, so much for us to say that the Guilde has a touch of modern ekonomi,  prices here are not free, there is no monopoly, no investigation to progress, Guilde forced to seek avoid risks to their companies are weak. Objectives to be achieved is not progress but protect existing and maintaining stability.
Congratulations Learning

The role of statistics in the economic sector

Statistics also has a role no less important in economics, particularly in relation to the collection of data from various aspects and sectors in an economy. For the data collection process, can use a variety of statistical methods. These data are such as to price developments, demand growth, inflation, interest rates, national production and others. In addition, statistics also provide an important contribution in the analysis of economic theory.

With statistics we can test and examine the various views expressed in economic theory. For example, according to the law of demand, when prices rose causing the demand for goods is down and vice versa assuming ceteris paribus. Statistics will help the process of collecting data on the development of prices and demand growth. If it turns out after doing data processing and test results differ by applicable law, we must examine other factors that affect, at which time the first test was constant.

Thus, in the end we can conclude that the types of goods that are subject to the law of demand is a normal good, while luxury goods, inferior, Giffen goods or in conditions of inflation will result in a conclusion that the condition was within the exception to the law of demand.

Fragrant tea

KOMPAS.com - Sound the trumpet sounding board for the third time to the houses in Makassar, South Sulawesi, within a radius of 3 kilometers. That is, the ocean liner set sail. It also means coffee, tea, nutmeg, pepper, cloves, sesame, flying fish roe, and seaweed from Indonesia went to eastern Europe, the Middle East, and the United States.
Since the 15th century, European sailors and merchants, for instance from the English, Dutch, and Portuguese, have smelled the sweet aroma of coffee and tea country. They are also interested in the nutmeg, pepper, cloves, and even chili. They even invaded the country these islands.
However, since several decades, Indonesia became the greatness of a country audience in the plantations of tea, coffee, and pepper. Exports of tea is still heavy, but not seheboh first. Total exports 112,500 tons of tea, but imports reached 24,000 tons. Indonesia is still a surplus of matter. However, the growing imports of Indonesia seems strange because the lush tea producer.
In the coffee stage, Indonesia also troubling. In 2011, total coffee exports 352,007 tons, down 21 percent from 2010. The coffee production in 2011 as much as 633,900 tons, down 7 percent from 2010. In 2012 coffee production would fall to 600,000 tonnes. The import of coffee (coffee beans, instant coffee, and processed coffee) in the period January-April 2012 as many as 38 799 tons. The same period last year was only 27,505 tons.
It is more dramatic, some countries, such as England, India, Pakistan, and China, not only run fast in producing tea, but also build a big name. In the crowded world markets covered English tea, Sri Lanka, India, and China. Very familiar to our ears to hear English or English breakfast tea, Japanese tea, and Oeloong cha. Rarely discussed in a coffee shop or in the cafes concerning Indonesian tea or Java tea.
Indonesia lost production dropped and imports rose. In terms of names, Indonesia also lost. This country had tea fragrance and quality, but without the name. Certainly a lot of tea mentioned earlier could be partly produced in Indonesia. Unfortunately, no trace of the name of Indonesia. It's called "chicken had eggs, cows can be called" alias "egg".
If you have time, try to come to the cafes in various major cities in Indonesia. What percent of tea and coffee as Indonesia? It is not clear, whether the authorities of this country bothered to hear the names of the foreign smell of tea and coffee.
It may seem trivial. The problem is, we are of pure exporters importers turned to coffee and tea. Many of the causes of this decline, including the optimization of land that has not been achieved and the lack of interest and a coffee and tea planting area.
The ocean liner was sailing, but the fragrant scent of tea and coffee smelled only a moment.

Why Economics Needs Statistics?

To determine the need for statistical reasons in economics, we will provide an overview related to the question, can answer the question of statistics relating to management functions such as
1. Matter of producing a particular product line with a comprehensive marketing plan to introduce it in the market early.
2. When a limited amount of funding for the production, which products are to be manufactured in advance if there is 2 or 3 kinds of products that are equally important.
3. Decision making in the work system that will provide more efficient basil.
4. Knowing the different variables associated with the quantity demanded of a product.
From there it will show the importance of the role of statistics, namely:
The first question relates to the marketing department of a company. To be a successful product on the market, the company will generally apply consumer-oriented strategy. Because it is necessary for a market survey to determine consumer preferences and the size of the market needs. The information expected to be obtained in the form of quantitative and qualitative data (type of data will be free in Chapter 2). To know the complete market tastes, the information should be extracted from the target population (if required to do segmentation that the company's goal just on specific market segments).
Extracting information from the target population consequences on cost, time, and personnel available. Given the time, expense, and effort marketing department is limited, it is necessary to consider the importance of a representative sample. By doing so, making some members of the population concerned has information that represents the entire members of the target population. These needs can be answered by the available statistics for the data collected using sampling methods. With the right techniques in this sampling method, not necessarily all members of the population are observed. The data obtained are representative of the whole individual, so as to reduce the cost, time, and energy research. From the samples obtained can be determined what types of products are favored in terms of shape, color, odor, function, strength of competitors, market size companies, and others. Based on the SWOT analysis can then be determined type of product, size of the sample product to be manufactured and marketed first, linked to the specific products, the ability distribution, promotion, and so on.To answer the second question of the priority of the manufacture of the product, can be calculated analysis of costs and benefits of those products (after considering the input constraint, selling price, cost of manufacture, etc.), then do the analysis variance (ANOVA) in statistics. From this it can be determined which products can be produced and which are not.
To answer the third question, to do preliminary experiments. From the results obtained, testing the average value of the two populations (when used in the two systems work) or analysis of variance (if you want to know the efficiency of the work of some systems work simultaneously).Multiple regression analysis can be used to answer the fourth question. Based on the kind of relationship that is obtained, it is known variables that significantly affect the quantity of demand for a product. Besides, it can also be estimated magnitude of the effect of certain variables during the required assumptions can be met.Aside from being able to answer these needs, statistics will also help the economy and business in various ways such as:- In the Field Production for setting quality standards, monitoring the work efficiency, test methods / products haul, and others.- In the field of accounting for the adjustments relating to prices, the relationship between cost and volume of production, and others.- In Field Marketing for the investigation of consumers' preferences, assessment of the potential market for the new product, pricing, advertising effectiveness research, the effectiveness of segmentation, assess market demand for products produced by the company at any given time, and others.- For management in formulating corporate policy, help determine the causal relationship between the various terms of, and facilitate understanding of the problem at hand.Reference Statistical methods for business and economics By Sugiarto

Adam Smith's theory of economic development

Adam Smith's Theory
Adam Smith (1723-1790) view economic development as a process of economic growth and economic development by utilizing market mechanisms. An economy will grow if the market mechanism works well and perfect. Conditions needed to achieve economic growth is investment and specialization is controlled through market mechanisms. The government's role is only to seek that market mechanisms can work well. For that, the government should do is maintenance of security, law enforcement, and the provision of public goods, such as education and health.

Adam Smith put forward three key elements in the growth process of production, which is as follows.
a. Human resources, which increase the number of residents.
b. Increase in the stock of capital goods (capital accumulation) because people's savings invested by the owners of capital with the hope of gain.
c. Specialization and division of labor with market expansion and development of domestic and international trade

Economic Naturalist

 

Why do brown eggs cost more than white ones?

Why is there a light in your fridge but not in your freezer?

Why did Kamikaze pilots wear helmets?

The answer is simple: economics.



 from the book The Economic Naturalist